Rally on! Here’s why the stock market has at least another 10 percent to go

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The bulls get more bullish: Why stocks can rally another 10%


Fasten your seatbelts, because the markets could surge another 10 percent by next summer, according to one top technician.

Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray recently raised his 2018 SP 500 price target to 2,850 — an objective he sees the benchmark index reaching within six to nine months.

“The major averages continue to gain altitude amid a flight path that has generated over 50 new record highs this year,” Johnson wrote in a recent note. “The ascent to new highs has been on a relatively slow and steady trajectory with minimal headwinds.”

Johnson pointed to several technical indicators he’s observing to support his thesis.

“We’re still seeing a lot of higher highs, higher lows, and I’m not seeing any uptrend breaks or breaks below [the] 40-week moving averages,” he said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “Also, you’ve got the advanced decline line still making new highs.”

The demarcation is a particularly important indicator to Johnson. It measures the number of stocks in an index that are advancing versus the number pulling back. A rising advance-decline line means that more stocks are rallying than falling.

“It’s not very often that I see a market roll over and see some sort of bigger correction happen in this when the advance-decline line continues to make new highs, along with the popular averages,” said Johnson.

He added that he expects leadership in tech — specifically in the FANG names — to continue next year. Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet are up a respective 56, 51, 59 and 32 percent in 2017.

“We still like what we’re seeing happening here, the leadership of the market, meaning the FANG stocks, continue to lead, and continue to make new highs,” he said. “I think we’re going to continue to see this market grind higher, and strong seasonality in November and December will still be positive.”

Boris Schlossberg has doubts that it will get to that point. The managing director of FX strategy for BK Asset Management believes that trouble is already brewing in the market that could stall the rally.

“I think the problem with the market is something you call dispersion, which is when you have essentially all of the gains concentrated in very few securities … [and] we are overvalued more so than any time except during the 1999 dot-com bubble” he said on “Trading Nation.”

Schlossberg also says that tax reform could be a risk to the market. While the House tax reform bill garnished enough votes to pass on Thursday, Schlossberg says any rally as a result of tax hopes would depend on what is in the final version of the bill. This, along with the fact that retailers are expressing concerns about holiday spending going into December, has Schlossberg wary on the rally.

All three major indexes were higher on Thursday as the Nasdaq hit an all-time high and the Dow and SP traded within half a percent of their respective highs.

Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.

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About

Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Brian Sullivan

Brian Sullivan is co-anchor of CNBC’s “Power Lunch” (M-F,1PM-3PM ET), one of the network’s longest running programs, as well as the host of the daily investing program “Trading Nation.” He is also a frequent guest on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” and other NBC properties.

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