Feed My Greed http://www.feedmygreed.com financial and business blog for those seeking advice and insight. Sat, 22 Jul 2017 10:41:54 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Intercepted communications seem to protest Jeff Sessions’ claims about his conversations with Russian ambassador http://www.feedmygreed.com/intercepted-communications-appear-to-contradict-jeff-sessions-claims-about-his-conversations-with-russian-ambassador/ Sat, 22 Jul 2017 10:41:54 +0000 http://www.feedmygreed.com/intercepted-communications-appear-to-contradict-jeff-sessions-claims-about-his-conversations-with-russian-ambassador/
Jeff SessionsChip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Attorney General Jeff Sessions discussed issues associated to the
Trump debate with Russia’s envoy to a US, Sergey
Kislyak, during a 2016 election, stream and former US
officials told The Washington
on Friday.

The officials’ criticism was formed on communications between
Kislyak and Moscow that were intercepted by US view agencies.

Since it emerged in Mar that Sessions, a distinguished Trump
debate surrogate, had unsuccessful to divulge his contacts with the
Russian ambassador, he consistently pronounced he did not discuss
anything associated to a Trump debate with Kislyak, and that all
their conversations took place within a range of his duties as
a US senator.

One US central told The Post Sessions’ statements were
“misleading” and “contradicted by other evidence.”

Another central pronounced a intercepted communications between
Kislyak and a Kremlin, in that he spoke of dual conversations
he had with Sessions, prove that Sessions and Kislyak had
“substantive” conversations about a Trump campaign’s platform
on matters associated to Russia, and how a Trump administration
would proceed a exploding US-Russia relationship.

US Justice Department mouthpiece Sarah Isgur
Flores responded to The Post’s news in a matter Friday

“Obviously, we can't criticism on a trustworthiness of what anonymous
sources news in a unconditionally uncorroborated intelligence
prevent that a Washington Post has not seen and that has not
been supposing to me, though a Attorney General stands by his
testimony from only final month before a Senate Intelligence
Committee when he privately addressed this and pronounced that he
‘never met with or had any conversations with any Russians or any
unfamiliar officials concerning any form of division with any
debate or election.'”

Jeff Sessions

Alex Wong/Getty

The Post’s news contradicts prior statements Sessions has
made, during times while underneath oath.

When he was asked either he communicated with a Russian
supervision during his Jan acknowledgment hearing, Sessions pronounced he
was “not wakeful of any of those activities.”

He added: “I have been called a broker during a time or dual in
that debate and we didn’t have — did not have communications
with a Russians, and I’m incompetent to criticism on it.”

After it emerged in Mar that Sessions had, in fact, had at
slightest dual conversations with Kislyak during a campaign, he was
forced to recuse himself from any stream or destiny Department of
Justice investigations into a Trump campaign’s ties to Russia.

“I never had meetings with Russian operatives or Russian
intermediaries about a Trump campaign,” Sessions pronounced when he
announced his recusal in March.

And when he was asked by a Senate Intelligence Committee in
Jun about his conversations with a Russians, Sessions narrowed
his answer and pronounced he had “never met with or had any
review with any Russians or unfamiliar officials concerning
any form of division with any debate or choosing in the
United States.”

The Post’s news comes amid a scattered time between Sessions
and President Donald Trump.

Trump told The New York
on Tuesday that he never would have allocated Sessions
as profession ubiquitous if he’d famous Sessions would recuse himself.

“Sessions should have never recused himself, and if he was going
to recuse himself, he should have told me before he took a job,
and we would have picked somebody else,” Trump said.

Sessions pronounced after excerpts of a talk were published that
he would sojourn in his position as prolonged as it were appropriate.

The internet has helped palliate practice inequality in Africa http://www.feedmygreed.com/the-internet-has-helped-ease-employment-inequality-in-africa/ Sat, 22 Jul 2017 10:41:51 +0000 http://www.feedmygreed.com/the-internet-has-helped-ease-employment-inequality-in-africa/ The Internet has been good for practice in Africa. Not usually has quick Internet helped boost practice opposite a continent, though according to recently expelled study, it also decreased inequality.

The study, conducted by economists during Columbia University and Harvard University, quantifies a impact of a attainment of a submarine Internet cables that done high speed Internet permitted to millions some-more Africans. The researchers find that these cables, that arrived in a late 2000s and early 2010s, led to somewhere between a 4% to 10% altogether arise in practice on a continent.

High speed Internet led to practice enlargement by enlivening a enlargement of companies in information record complicated sectors like finance, and augmenting a capability of prolongation firms, write a researchers. Specifically, they indicate to abounding sectors like business routine outsourcing in South Africa, e-commerce in Nigeria, and industrial prolongation in Kenya as examples of a approach high speed Internet has reshaped a African labor market.

Perhaps a many conspicuous of a researchers’ commentary is that a Internet has decreased inequality in practice by preparation level. Their information uncover that a organisation that saw a biggest boost in practice were people who had only finished primary school. Secondary propagandize graduates and those with aloft preparation degrees also gained, though not as much. The researchers trust this is expected due to an enlargement of use attention and domestic jobs demanded by an increasingly rich African center class.

In sequence to pertain this pursuit enlargement to a Internet, rather than other changes function on a continent, a researchers use a crafty methodology. They feat a fact that a submarine cables arrived to coastal African cities solemnly over time in a geographically dynamic manner. The picture below, from a paper, shows a time of a attainment from 2009 to 2012.


The researchers denote that, before to a introduction of these cables, a places that would and would not accept Internet followed identical labor marketplace trends. Because they were means to settle this similarity, a researchers were means to explain that a pursuit enlargement in places that gained entrance to a high speed Internet was a outcome of entrance to this new resource.

Sign adult for a Quartz Africa Weekly Brief — a many critical and engaging news from opposite a continent, in your inbox.

SPECIAL PROMOTION:Future Finance – Channel3000.com – WISC http://www.feedmygreed.com/special-promotionfuture-finance-channel3000-com-wisc/ Sat, 22 Jul 2017 10:41:43 +0000 http://www.feedmygreed.com/special-promotionfuture-finance-channel3000-com-wisc/


Jamie Letcher is a Financial Advisor for Summit Financial Advisors, a full-service financial services module located during Summit Credit Union that offers products and services by CUNA Brokerage, Inc. The staff consists of 7 financial advisors assisting credit kinship members conduct scarcely $400 million in assets. Characterizing themselves as “financial coaches,” Summit Financial Advisors teach their members and clients on ways to grasp their ultimate financial goals. 

His recommendation to those deliberation operative with a financial confidant is to persevere in what competence seem like an strenuous process. “Often resources government feels daunting to consumers given it can be impossibly formidable and filled with unknown jargon. That’s since it’s critical for financial coaches to clearly explain and promote a process, violation a incomparable devise down into a array of practicable transformation steps,” he says. “Virtually any credit kinship member we lay down with has dual to 8 required transformation steps. It’s critical to take them one during a time, and keep your eye on a long-term benefits. As tantalizing as it is to procrastinate, accomplishing financial goals—even in a short-term—requires action.”

Letcher has worked in a credit kinship transformation for some-more than 3 decades, and has helped members and clients grasp their financial dreams for 11 years, in a accumulation of roles. “My work is enormously rewarding, given so many people are looking for instruction on financial matters,” he says. “And this position gives me a event to work with people from all walks, and in all stages of life. If they are uncertain of where to start, need honest recommendation about resources strategies, or simply wish superintendence in forging their possess path, we’re here to help. The enlightenment of credit unions is ‘people assisting people’ in a mild fashion.”

Procrastination can be a formidable separator to overcome when it comes financial planning. “The many severe aspect is overcoming interference and indeed holding a initial step together,” Letcher says. “This mostly involves changing habits and behaviors, and for many people that is unequivocally difficult. But it’s essential to achieving their financial goals for a future.”


Financial Consultant Jeremy Marshall works in Investment Services during UW Credit Union, a full-service investment association that offers advice, preparation and financial formulation to members from all over a country. “Our member-clients are unequivocally opposite in their backgrounds and needs,” Marshall says. “We conduct their resources and advise them in all aspects of their finances—everything from formulation for retirement to saving for a down remuneration on a home.”

More than simply charity financial products, Marshall says a association focuses on educating members on investment topics and bargain any client’s needs and goals. “Because we’re member-owned, and guided by a element of putting members’ best interests first, we go a additional mile to assistance clients find a right strategies to strech their financial goals,” he explains. “We stay on tip of stream marketplace trends and attention changes to make certain that a member-clients are removing a best recommendation possible.”

Marshall says there have been some vital changes in a attention over a final few years per regulations that will outcome in incomparable clarity about a costs and probable conflicts of seductiveness from people charity retirement advice. “At Investment Services during UW Credit Union, we welcome this trend,” he says. “We wish investors to have improved information, and a ability to make good long-term financial decisions, but carrying to doubt a motives of a advisors.”

Marshall says he enjoys a formulation side of his pursuit a most. “It’s unequivocally gratifying when we can assistance a member-client map out their financial plan,” he says. “I’ve had many member-clients come in with questions about retirement. After examining their situation, we might establish that they can indeed retire immediately if they would like. Knowing that gives them extensive freedom.”

He concedes that any year presents new hurdles for a financial services industry, from regulatory changes and domestic concerns, to marketplace worries. But these fluctuations have an upside. “These hurdles yield an event for consumers to revisit their financial devise and make certain it is still on course,” Marshall says. “It’s critical to accommodate with your financial confidant annually to determine that all in your devise is still aligned with your goals.”


Monica Schlicht assimilated First Business Bank some-more than a year ago as Vice President of Private Banking. She is focused on a day-to-day banking and credit needs of business owners, executives, and people with high net worths. These clients are mostly meddlesome in investment government or substantiating a trust, so Schlicht works with her partner franchised financial advisors, approved financial planners, and other trust and estate advisors on staff, to promote transactions.

“I have been in banking for 20 years,” she says. “When it comes to looking out for a clients’ goals and assisting to grasp them, we don’t consider anyone can do it improved than a group can here during First Business Bank. In fact, clients are astounded by a concierge-level use they accept when operative with us. Providing an well-developed banking believe is a joining we make every day when we travel by a front doors. Every event we earn
is an honor.”

Schlicht believes that her association has a rival corner in a marketplace given “we unequivocally do what we do in a clearly opposite way. We know a clients well, and we can offer customized solutions to accommodate their needs. We know their businesses. We know their families. Clients call us and we already know their stories. This allows us to govern a transaction within 24 hours that might take other financial professionals days or weeks to fulfill. We are focused.  We listen to what a customer needs. We execute.”

Schlicht says she is ardent about her work given she truly loves a accumulation of hurdles fundamental in her job. “One day, we am assisting a family with 3 kids figure out a college plan.  The subsequent day, we am saying a customer grasp his idea of building his dream home,” she says. “And a next, we am assisting a customer promote her banking and investments, to position herself and her family for her subsequent miracle in retirement. In any case, we am focused on these goals, as if they were my own. And that’s a privilege.” photo


Clint Bauch, CFP,® ChFC® is President/CEO of Park Capital Management, LLC, an eccentric Registered Investment Advisory (RIA) organisation that focuses on financial planning, consulting on companies’ 401(k) retirement plans, and resources and investment government services. 

“Park Capital Management’s financial formulation and conference services are as individualized as a clients,” he says. “Our idea is to know their long- and short-term goals and objectives and to put a devise together formed on those needs. We do this by assembly with any customer one-on-one and mapping a destiny devise together.” Bauch and his colleagues commence formulation for retirement, taxation and estate planning, and altogether investment management. 

Bauch believes Park Capital Management’s autonomy is pivotal to a success. “The association is not hold to any exclusive investments, that allows us to truly rivet with a clients as their partner,” he says. “As a fiduciary, we are hold to a aloft customary and always essay to yield recommendation formed on what is in a client’s best interest. We don’t concentration on any specific product and don’t have elect and income mandate mostly found in incomparable financial institutions. This also provides us with coherence to investigate a far-reaching operation of solutions that will advantage a clients directly.”One attention trend Bauch sees is incomparable clarity around fees. “At Park Capital Management we are entirely transparent,” he says. “We spend time educating a clients about their fees and what they can design in return.” Bauch records that another new trend that is not as profitable is a volume of financial information accessible on a Internet. “People conflict many some-more fast and are some-more romantic about their investments formed on what they see in a news and by other media outlets,” he says. “This can means people to over-react. We warn a business to concentration on a long-term so they can grasp financial success.”

Paul M. Schmidt is an estate formulation profession during a Boardman Clark law organisation in Madison.  “Estate formulation is an essential partial of financial and period formulation for people and families,” he explains. “Just as a financial confidant will assistance build wealth, and a CPA will minimize taxes, an estate planner will work with people and families to conduct and safety their resources if a particular becomes incapacitated or dies. A large partial of my pursuit is to assistance people conduct their resources for their destiny financial confidence and for a advantage of their heirs and other dictated beneficiaries.”

Schmidt started practicing law in 1990, receiving a law grade after operative for a Social Security Administration. “I also have a conversing degree, so estate formulation was a healthy fit for me,” he says. “It allows me to work with people to solve problems and emanate a applicable devise for a government of their financial resources and fit send of those resources to destiny generations. That’s a many gratifying partial of my job—finding solutions to my clients’ problems, and formulating a devise that works good for them.”

His customer bottom is broad. “I work with immature couples looking to strengthen their teenager children, assistance to set adult trusts for their destiny support and education,” he says. “I also advise determined professionals who have built a business and wish to pass a business on to their children in a unsentimental and tax-efficient manner. The bottom line is that everybody needs an estate plan, regardless of age or wealth. This devise is some-more than only a will; a good devise ensures that a government and send of an individual’s resources are concurrent to accommodate a individual’s goals, either those goals are to conduct resources during their incapacity, yield for charities, or minimize taxes for a advantage of their families.”


Schmidt is partial of a incomparable group of estate formulation attorneys during Boardman Clark, one of a largest and oldest firms formed in Madison. The organisation serves individuals, businesses and internal governments in a far-reaching accumulation of authorised areas. Boardman Clark serves clients with a faith that a good disciple brings some-more than knowledge, believe and responsiveness—he or she is someone we can trust, who understands your values and goals, and will work closely with we to find your best trail forward.

Selling Insurance Across State Lines http://www.feedmygreed.com/selling-insurance-across-state-lines/ Sat, 22 Jul 2017 10:41:39 +0000 http://www.feedmygreed.com/selling-insurance-across-state-lines/

President Donald Trump pronounced that by permitting insurers to sell skeleton opposite state lines, “your premiums will be down 60 and 70 percent.” We couldn’t find any investigate ancillary such a decrease, and experts we consulted doubtful a thought that altogether normal premiums would diminution significantly.

The boss made a claim in his remarks before a luncheon on Jul 19 with Republican senators to speak about legislative efforts to dissolution a Affordable Care Act.

Trump, Jul 19: [C]ross state lines, where we have — where it’s roughly unfit for word companies to contest in opposite states. … We’re putting it in a renouned bill, and that will come. And that will come, and your premiums will be down 60 and 70 percent. People don’t know that. Nobody hears it. Nobody talks about it. … We’re going to have to cranky state lines … and you’ll have word companies bidding, you’ll have forms of word that we don’t even know about right now, given that’s a approach it works. There’s going to be extensive competition.

We asked a White House for support for a president’s claim, though we did not accept a response. We reached out to health caring experts, and they knew of no investigate or investigate subsidy adult Trump’s 60 percent or 70 percent total — nor could they indicate to any other studies giving estimates for a impact on premiums.

In a “myth vs. reality” fact sheet, a National Association of Insurance Commissioners — a support classification determined by a country’s state word regulators — pronounced a thought that cross-state sales would move about revoke premiums was a “myth.” The reality: “Interstate sales will start a foe to a bottom by permitting companies to select their regulator,” permitting insurers to aim a healthiest consumers. “While those people in primitive health competence be means to find cheaper policies, everybody else would face high reward hikes if they can find coverage during all,” a NAIC wrote.

Allowing insurers to sell policies opposite state lines — on a particular market, where those though employer skeleton or supervision skeleton like Medicaid buy their possess coverage — has been a renouned offer among Republicans for some time. As a boss mentioned, a thought is that it would foster some-more foe to move down a prices of policies. It would cut down on state word regulations, as word companies would select to sell policies out of states with fewer regulatory requirements.

In 2008, Sen. John McCain enclosed a process in his health caring devise as he campaigned for president, saying it would “provide some-more choices of innovative products reduction impeded by a misfortune excesses of state-based regulation.”

That, of course, was before a Affordable Care Act, when states sundry widely in what they compulsory of insurers on a particular market. But a ACA enacted countrywide minimum advantage standards, boundary on out-of-pocket spending, boundary on how most premiums could change formed on a consumer’s age, and mandate that insurers not use health standing to cost premiums or reject anyone, among other regulations.

Trump talked of creation a cross-state process apart legislation from a dissolution of a ACA. The new GOP health caring bills in a House and Senate both enclosed supplies giving states a ability to change or dump some of a ACA regulations, though a Senate is now set to cruise repealing a ACA with a two-year delay.

The ACA did embody a provision permitting insurers to sell policies opposite state lines, though states would have to enter into “compacts.” And a Obama administration never released regulations substantiating how those compacts would work. The Department of Health and Human Services would have to approve a cross-state sales, a February 2017 brief from a National Academy for State Health Policy explains. Five states have upheld laws permitting widespread sales — with 3 of them doing so after thoroughfare of a ACA — though no insurers have entered new markets underneath those laws.

Impact on Premiums

So, if word companies could sell particular marketplace skeleton opposite state lines, and state regulators didn’t have to follow ACA requirements, would “your premiums” go down “60 and 70 percent”?

Experts cited several reasons that a across-state-lines thought wouldn’t be a cure for high premiums as a boss implied.

Joseph Antos, a Wilson H. Taylor Scholar in Health Care and Retirement Policy during a American Enterprise Institute, wrote in a Feb. 26, 2016, post on a consider tank’s website that even with giving states regulatory authority, “one should not design widespread sales to significantly revoke a cost of health insurance.”

Why? Primarily given a costs of health services are local. Medical services are some-more costly in places like New York City or San Francisco — like probably each other commodity — than they are in, say, tiny towns in Ohio, or even other areas of New York and California.

Antos, who was on President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers and hold other positions in a Office of Management and Budget and a Department of Health and Human Services, told us in a phone talk that some-more regulatory coherence “could revoke premiums to some extent,” though insurers are still sealed into a costs of health services in a given geographic area. The “price of word is driven not by a cost of health caring in a state where a insurer is legally domiciled,” Antos said, though rather in a state where a patron lives.

So a inexpensive devise in an inexpensive locality would still have to be labelled aloft if sole in a high-cost area.

Linda J. Blumberg, a comparison associate during a Urban Institute’s Health Policy Center, told us that some people could see a dump in what they compensate for premiums on a bulk Trump claimed, if insurers significantly curtailed benefits. But other people — those who wish or need to buy extensive policies — could see thespian reward increases.

This is a “race to a bottom” that a NAIC cited in a “myth vs. reality” paper.

In states with unregulated markets, “you could emanate a conditions where we are offered unequivocally low-priced policies to healthy people though most [insurance] word whatsoever,” Blumberg, who was a health process confidant to President Bill Clinton’s administration, pronounced in a phone interview. “But that ignores a fact that … what you’re doing is pushing adult a premiums to unfit levels” in states that wish to have word regulations.

It’s a “risk-segmentation strategy,” she said, where eventually a healthy people are pulled into one set of skeleton and those with health problems are left in another. Premiums would go adult so most in states with regulated skeleton that it would turn unfit for them to means those regulations.

That’s one reason state regulators don’t like this idea, says Blumberg, given “no state regulator wants … to be undermined by manners in another state.”

Antos wonders how most insurers could presumably frame down their policies. They could revoke some benefits, though it “would also have to be something people wish to buy,” he said. And incompatible certain benefits, like mental health benefits, wouldn’t revoke premiums by much.

It’s formidable to know what would happen, Antos said. If an insurer were to dump all quadriplegic services, for example, a reward would be a lot cheaper. “But who would buy it?” he said.

Sabrina Corlette, a investigate highbrow during Georgetown University’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms, said that a lion’s share of a reward is a income a devise has to compensate for medical claims, as good as utilization. Selling word opposite state lines wouldn’t change a cost of medical services — as Antos pronounced — though if word companies could repudiate coverage or assign some-more for health conditions, a conduit could “push down on function by screening out ill people” and then, “they can assign a revoke premium.”

“You could start to see dramatically opposite premiums” between regulated and unregulated states, Corlette said, echoing Blumberg’s comments.

A September 2016 study by RAND Corp. researchers looked during a impact of Trump’s health caring discuss proposals, including offered policies opposite state lines. It didn’t yield estimates for a impact on premiums alone, though pronounced that out-of-pocket costs would boost on normal for particular marketplace enrollees if a ACA were repealed, and boost even some-more if usually a across-state-lines process were added. But that doesn’t comment for any taxation credits, that presumably would be partial of a incomparable ACA-replacement package.

Evan Saltzman, one of a authors of that report, told us that he didn’t consider it was a widen to contend premiums would go down by permitting word to be sole opposite state lines. But a 60-to-70 percent dump seems “a tiny unreasonable.”

“Maybe a 21-year-old would see that kind of decrease, though a 64-year-old competence not,” he said.

Then there’s a doubt of how most insurers want to sell skeleton opposite state lines. Insurance companies build networks of doctors and hospitals in a given area to yield ignored pricing. The ACA has highlighted a fact that insurers are means to revoke premiums by charity skeleton with narrow networks.

Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini told CNBC in late January that an across-state-lines proposal was past a prime: “Quite frankly, a thought of offered word opposite state lines is a antiquated concept. Insurance products are now firmly aligned with networks, and so shopping an word product from another state that’s tied to a network in another state unequivocally doesn’t work for people seeking care.”

In fact, Corlette found that a “significant barrier,” some-more so than regulatory environments, to insurers entering a new marketplace was ” the huge problem that out-of-state insurers face in building a network of internal providers.” In a 2012 report for Georgetown’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms, Corlette and her co-authors interviewed supervision officials and insurers in a handful of states that have enacted laws per cross-state word sales. As we mentioned, no insurer had entered a new marketplace due to those laws.

The American Academy of Actuaries summarized all of a concerns we’ve lonesome here in a February brief. On provider networks, a veteran organisation said: “Any cost assets ensuing from differences in advantage coverage mandate among states can be tiny compared to cost assets that can be achieved by negotiating clever provider contracts. Unless they are means to grasp a vast enrollment, out-of-state insurers competence have problem in negotiating with providers.”

The NAIC cautioned in a Jan. 24 letter to GOP leaders in a House of Representatives: “We continue to see proposals that would preempt state chartering mandate and, thus, consumer protections by permitting sales opposite state lines by sovereign edict, though correct option for a states to form compacts between themselves.”

Saltzman, co-author of a RAND study, pronounced there’s also “selective entry” within states, where, for instance, Los Angeles has a lot of word foe though farming areas of a state don’t.

He said, and other experts agreed, that it’s unequivocally formidable to indication an across-state-lines policy. The appendix to his Sep 2016 news remarkable that this was “particularly severe given a miss of accessible information on insurer entrance decisions and vital behavior.”

It stays to be seen if a sovereign across-state-lines process is politically, and practically, feasible. And given it hasn’t been tried, we don’t know accurately what impact it would have. But we found no justification for President Trump’s row that under such a policy, “your premiums will be down 60 and 70 percent.”

Editor’s Note: More articles about a 2017 health caring discuss can be found here


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Beware of the curse of the number 7 in the stock market http://www.feedmygreed.com/beware-of-the-curse-of-the-number-7-in-the-stock-market/ Sat, 22 Jul 2017 10:41:31 +0000 http://www.feedmygreed.com/beware-of-the-curse-of-the-number-7-in-the-stock-market/ MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto

Lucky number seven may turn out to be a curse for the stock market.

Trading in stocks is a numbers game. Buy low, sell high. Are valuations too extreme? How many more years can this bull market run? But the one number that investors may have to start paying attention to is 7, a numeral that according to one investment adviser has some relevance to the market in a wholly unexpected way.

Seven is normally a number associated with good fortune but when it comes to equities, it appears to be more of a curse.

Dana Lyons, a partner J. Lyons Fund Management Inc., recently noted that the performance of the stock market in the second half of years ending in 7s has been among the most dismal.

Lyons summarized the track record of the latter half of “7” years as follows:

Dana Lyons/J. Lyons Fund Management Inc.

With the exception of 1927, it has literally been all downhill.

In fact, “7” years have the worst July-December returns, reporting a median return of negative 9.29%.

Dana Lyons/J. Lyons Fund Management Inc.

“Other than the 1st half of year ‘0,’ the median return of the 2nd half of year ‘7’s’ is over 600 basis points worse than any other half year,” writes Lyons in a blog post.

The second half of “7” years also recorded the biggest drawdown for any six-month period, posting an average of 20.7%.

Dana Lyons/J. Lyons Fund Management Inc.

Lyons admits seasonality is a tricky thing and should only be relied on for minor “tweaks” in portfolios and positions. And no competent strategist would ever be caught giving credence to the belief that past performance is indicative of future results.

Yet, Lyons believes investors should stay vigilant given that some of the most profitable and reliable timing systems closely correlate with seasonality.

“Some of the historical seasonality trends are so compelling that, at a minimum, they command our acknowledgment,” he said.

Investors will be hard pressed to look for monsters under the bed when stocks have been on a steady upward trajectory all year. But as this market has witnessed countless times, it doesn’t take much to turn a rally into a stampede for the exit.

Three weeks into the second half of the year, the SP 500

SPX, -0.04%

is up 1.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average

DJIA, -0.15%

is 1.1% higher and the Nasdaq

COMP, -0.04%

 has rallied 3.9%.

See also: SP 500, Nasdaq post weekly gains as stock market finishes session lower

Israel criminialized Muslim group underneath a age of 50 from a Jerusalem holy site http://www.feedmygreed.com/israel-banned-muslim-men-under-the-age-of-50-from-a-jerusalem-holy-site/ Fri, 21 Jul 2017 10:32:27 +0000 http://www.feedmygreed.com/israel-banned-muslim-men-under-the-age-of-50-from-a-jerusalem-holy-site/
Palestinians Protest Jerusalem Old City
scream slogans during a criticism over Israel’s new security
measures during a devalue housing al-Aqsa mosque, famous to
Muslims as Noble Sanctuary and to Jews as Temple Mount, in
Jerusalem’s Old City Jul 20, 2017.

REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel criminialized Muslim organisation underneath a age of 50
from a contested Jerusalem tabernacle Friday and deployed about
3,000 troops nearby, forward of approaching Muslim protests over the
designation of steel detectors during a holy site.

The age restrictions and troops deployment came hours after
Israel’s confidence Cabinet motionless not to overrule an earlier
troops preference to implement steel detectors during a gates to the
walled compound.

The flighty Jerusalem shrine, worshiped by Muslims and Jews,
sits during a core of opposition Israeli and Palestinian national
narratives and has triggered vital confrontations in a past.

Police commissioned a steel detectors progressing this week, after
Palestinian gunmen launched an conflict from a tabernacle and
killed dual Israeli policemen. Muslim leaders have supposed that
a steel detectors are partial of a supposed Israeli try to
enhance control over a site.

Israel has denied such allegations, arguing that metal
detectors are slight confidence devices.

Muslim leaders have called on worshippers to urge in the
streets nearby a tabernacle rather than travel by metal
detectors. Over a march of a week, flourishing numbers of
Palestinian worshippers have participated in such street
prayers, quite in a evenings. Following such prayers,
smaller numbers of Palestinian protesters have clashed with

On Thursday evening, troops dismissed rubber bullets, rip gas and
jolt grenades to sunder protesters who, according to police,
threw rocks and bottles. Paramedics from a Red Crescent said
37 people were harmed by rubber bullets, 3 of them

Friday is a prominence of a Muslim eremite week, and tens
of thousands of worshippers typically perform prayers during the
shrine, famous to Muslims as a Noble Sanctuary and to Jews as
a Temple Mount.

Muslim leaders have urged a true to abstain prayers in
smaller Jerusalem area mosques Friday and intersect on
a shrine, in an try to boost a throng size.

Police announced Friday that Muslim organisation underneath a age of 50
would be criminialized from a tabernacle and that it was sending
reinforcements to Jerusalem.

“Police and limit troops units mobilized in all areas and
neighborhoods,” pronounced orator Micky Rosenfeld,
adding that about 3,000 members of a confidence army had been

Israeli Police Palestinians Muslim Prayers Jerusalem Old City
limit troops mount safeguard as Palestinians take partial in evening
prayers outward a Lion’s Gate of Jerusalem’s Old City July
20, 2017.


A Palestinian advocacy organisation pronounced Israeli troops incarcerated 10
distinguished Palestinian activists in Jerusalem, including the
personality of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah movement
in a city.

Israeli troops had no evident comment.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bureau pronounced the
confidence Cabinet motionless to defer to troops on security
arrangements during a shrine.

“The Cabinet certified a troops to make all decisions in
sequence to safeguard giveaway entrance to holy sites while ensuring
confidence and open order,” a matter said. It combined that
Israel is committed to preserving “the standing quo during a Temple
Mount and giveaway entrance to holy sites.”

The preference to defer to troops came amid reports of
feud among Israel’s confidence services about a need
for a steel detectors. The troops and a Shin Bet security
services, that understanding directly with Palestinians and potential
unrest, were reportedly against to a devices.

Israel had come underneath flourishing vigour this week, including
from confidence fan Jordan, to mislay a steel detectors.
Jordan is a protector of a Muslim-administered walled
compound, that houses a Al Aqsa and Dome of a Rock

The order of Jordan’s Hashemite dynasty, pronounced to snippet its
stock behind to a Prophet Muhammad, rests to a vast degree
on a purpose as defender of a site.


Associated Press author Karin Laub in a West Bank contributed

Employment Shifts In Europe During The Recovery – Social Europe http://www.feedmygreed.com/employment-shifts-in-europe-during-the-recovery-social-europe/ Fri, 21 Jul 2017 10:32:23 +0000 http://www.feedmygreed.com/employment-shifts-in-europe-during-the-recovery-social-europe/ John HurleyJohn Hurley

John Hurley

The EU has finally recovered all a net practice waste postulated given a tellurian financial crisis. It has been a prolonged and unpleasant process. But there is during final flourishing justification of certain movement in EU work markets, if not utterly ‘animal spirits’. Many of those member states many influenced by a tellurian downturn have available poignant practice enlargement in a final 3 years – including Spain (+9%), Ireland (+8%) and Greece (+5%).

While altogether practice numbers are behind to where they were, and stability to increase, a structure of practice in a EU has altered in a series of ways. There are some trends that are long-term, pervasive and well-documented – for example, a augmenting services share of employment, occupational upgrading and a enlargement of womanlike employment. Some, however, are reduction well-known. The latest European Jobs Monitor news draws courtesy to 3 rising and reduction remarked work marketplace developments.

First of all, in contrariety to a pre-crisis practice enlargement or even a predicament years (2008-13), practice enlargement given 2013 has been usually modestly lopsided towards well-paid jobs. Recent enlargement has been increasingly strong in low-paid and mid-paid jobs, ensuing in a consumption-led liberation where practice in sectors such as food/beverages, accommodation and personal services in sold have benefited from augmenting demand. Of course, jobs in these sectors are generally reduction well-paid and have singular intensity to minister to altogether capability increases. Their enlargement might be one partial of a reason for a “productivity paradox” – disappearing levels of capability enlargement and low compensate notwithstanding a array of technological advances such as driverless transport, automated factories, telemedicine, online preparation (MOOCs,) etc. – with that we are all increasingly familiar.

Fig: practice enlargement (% pa) by job-wage quintile, EU

Source: European Jobs Monitor annual news 2017, p.11. In any chart, quintile bars paint practice shifts in jobs accounting for, in sequence, a lowest-paid 20% of practice on a left to a highest-paid 20% of practice on a right.

Second, while services comment for a lion’s share of new jobs, there has also been a important miscarry in EU prolongation employment. Over 1.5 million net new jobs have been combined in attention given 2013 and a rate of practice boost has been usually marginally reduce than that for services (1.4 percent per annum contra 1.6 percent, EU). Sectors such as auto, machine and apparatus make in sold have benefitted.

Fig: practice shifts (thousands) by job-wage quintile and extended sector, EU, 2011-16

Source: EJM annual news 2017.

Two serve measure of this boost in prolongation practice are value signalling:

  • While a attention jobs mislaid in a predicament and post-crisis duration were essentially mid-paid, essentially blue-collar prolongation jobs, a miscarry has seen enlargement especially in higher-paid engineering and government jobs. There has been a re-composition of practice within prolongation towards higher-paid, some-more highly-skilled employment.
  • The biggest beneficiaries of a miscarry have been a executive and eastern European countries. The EU13 accounts for 60 percent of a net boost in prolongation practice notwithstanding representing usually around a entertain of EU prolongation jobs. This west –east change in a area of complicated attention in a EU is also clear in a patterns of practice gains and waste outset from restructuring activity prisoner in a European Restructuring Monitor in new years.

And, of course, a new increases need to be seen in a context of a long-run decrease in manufacturing’s share of practice – down from 31 percent as recently as 1995 (EU15) to usually over 14 percent in 2016, as good as a pointy contraction gifted during 2008-13 when over 5m jobs were mislaid in EU manufacturing. Nonetheless, as new Eurostat information on a automobile industry demonstrates, European prolongation is globally competitive, with poignant new practice dividends.

Third, there has been some shutting of a gender practice gap, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Women have accounted for incomparable practice enlargement than group given 2011 (4.1m contra 2.7m). More surprisingly perhaps, in a depart from determined patterns, group are accounting for a most incomparable share of part-time practice growth. In fact, given 2011, new womanlike jobs are some-more expected to have been full-time, while a infancy of net new masculine practice has been in part-time employment, generally lower-paid and mostly involuntary. Male part-timers are most some-more expected than womanlike part-timers, for example, to prove that they are operative part-time usually since they can't find an homogeneous full-time job.

For men, part-time practice enlargement has been important in many jobs that to date have been especially female-employing such as sell sales assistants and personal use workers in a food/beverages sector. One intensity reason is that masculine workers who mislaid their jobs in a prolongation and construction sectors during a predicament have subsequently taken adult lower-paying use jobs, including jobs in a ‘gig’ economy. At a other finish of a salary distribution, there have been augmenting numbers of part-time professionals in a health and preparation sectors and, in line with a altogether gender share of practice in these sectors, these have been essentially womanlike jobs.

Fig: Employment shifts (thousands) by job-wage quintile, full-time / part-time and gender, EU, 2011–2016

Source: EJM annual news 2017 (based on EU-LFS data).

In summary, a jobs liberation in Europe has been noted by a lapse of certain practice enlargement in a center and during a bottom of a salary placement – even if over a longer timeframe aloft paid jobs continue to grow faster than others. A rebound in (generally good quality) prolongation practice has contributed to this certain dynamic. Meanwhile, part-time employment, strongly compared with salary penalties and other pursuit peculiarity deficits, appears to be ‘normalising’, during slightest for some veteran women, while charity some probability of last-resort work marketplace connection for a flourishing series of men.

This blog post is formed on investigate carried out by a author jointly with Enrique Fernandez-Macias and other researchers for Eurofound in a European Jobs Monitor [EJM] project. The EJM marks constructional change in European work markets – in terms of practice shifts by function and zone – and also provides a qualitative comment of these shifts regulating opposite proxies of pursuit quality, particularly normal hourly wage. The 2017 EJM report can be downloaded here.

Merkel might win election, though remove her financial minister http://www.feedmygreed.com/merkel-may-win-election-but-lose-her-finance-minister/ Fri, 21 Jul 2017 10:32:19 +0000 http://www.feedmygreed.com/merkel-may-win-election-but-lose-her-finance-minister/ SASBACHWALDEN, Germany (Reuters) – Wolfgang Schaeuble has won his parliamentary chair a dozen times, survived an try on his life and guided Angela Merkel by a euro section crisis. Now, a German chancellor competence have to scapegoat him to secure a confederation deal.

Merkel’s conservatives are expected to win a inhabitant choosing on Sept. 24, though miss of an altogether infancy could force them to continue their fondness with a center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).

SPD leaders contend their cost for a re-run of a stream ‘grand coalition’ would be for Schaeuble to empty a financial method and palm it to them.

Schaeuble personifies a mercantile fortify and financial fortitude that many Germans crave. But for a SPD he goes too far.

For Merkel’s domestic opponents, Schaeuble’s importance that both Germany and other EU countries belong to Europe’s bill manners risks denying French President Emmanuel Macron a coherence to revitalise his country’s economy.

Germany is awash with taxation revenues though France is in a tighter spot. The SPD worries that insistence on French bill fortify will not give Macron a room for scheme to encourage growth. If Macron fails, a SPD’s regard is a EU will destroy or that far-right personality Marine Le Pen could win power.

SPD Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel pronounced he had asked Merkel that unfolding in her perspective would be some-more costly for Germany: a somewhat aloft bill necessity in France or Le Pen as boss in 5 years.

“We Germans contingency change a position,” Gabriel said.

Softening Schaeuble’s proceed to a euro section would not go down good with many Germans. In his home segment of Baden-Wuerttemberg, where tough work and saving is a approach of life, he enjoys cult status.

In Schaeuble’s view, governments contingency stop pier adult debt so that destiny process makers still have some income to spend.

Ready to Continue

In a wheelchair given a demented male shot him during an choosing debate eventuality a few days after German reunification in 1990, Schaeuble lives for a pursuit and has signaled his eagerness to stay in politics.

“I’m prepared to continue,” he told electorate in Sasbachwalden, his home city nearby a French border.

Schaeuble does not let his incapacity reason him back.

In May, he flew half approach around a universe to spend 12 hours in Durban, where he attended several panels during a World Economic Forum on Africa, corroborated efforts to attract some-more investment and lectured students on how a EU works.

It is this relentless expostulate that commands a honour of electorate and colleagues alike.

“When we go to breakfasts and celebration meetings with him, he is a one who is a many assertive – prepared to take on a Social Democrats,” a comparison German supervision central said.

But while polls advise Merkel will win a fourth tenure in September, she competence finish adult losing Schaeuble as financial minister.

Tricky Talks

Merkel faces wily confederation talks over ministerial jobs in a subsequent parliament.

Senior members of a dual parties many expected to be her youth confederation partner – a SPD and a business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) – have done transparent that they have their eye on a financial method this time.

“The SPD won’t repeat a mistake it done during a confederation talks 4 years ago,” Gabriel told reporters.

In 2013, a SPD focused especially on domestic issues and pushed for a introduction of a inhabitant smallest wage. It hence got a labor ministry, among other departments such as mercantile affairs and unfamiliar relations.

Now, a SPD’s claimant for chancellor, Martin Schulz, has done investment and oneness with Europe a cornerstone of his campaign, signaling a reduction firm position on a budget.

If a Social Democrats are forced into another grand confederation underneath Merkel, it would be “very important” for a SPD to get a financial ministry, a comparison SPD source told Reuters.

“If there’s one thing we Social Democrats have learned, it’s this: We should not enter confederation again though determining a financial ministry,” SPD bill lawmaker Johannes Kahrs told Reuters.

The smaller FDP shares identical thoughts. A comparison FDP source pronounced a celebration was meddlesome in a financial ministry, nonetheless it could be some-more formidable for it to grasp this.

Reform, Then Integrate

Senior members of Merkel’s CDU/CSU regressive confederation acknowledge that she could win a choosing and still be forced to give adult Schaeuble as financial minister.

Eckhardt Rehberg, Merkel’s arch bill lawmaker in parliament, pronounced his celebration would find it tough to keep a financial method if a choosing constructed another ‘grand coalition’ with a SPD – an choice both parties have pronounced they dislike.

“Keeping a financial method will be many formidable to grasp with a SPD as youth partner since a celebration has put a clever importance on finances and Europe,” Rehberg told Reuters.

“If we have a identical conditions on choosing night as we did 4 years ago, a SPD is expected to direct not usually a unfamiliar method though also a financial ministry,” he added.

It stays misleading either Merkel will have to scapegoat Schaeuble. But his depart would be a blow for a chancellor’s idea of strengthening formation within a EU once Britain leaves, or during slightest within a euro zone.

For Merkel, deeper formation is a doubt of sequencing.

This is where Schaeuble could assistance her: gripping doubtful German electorate and lawmakers on house by insisting France and a southern euro section countries remodel first, before similar to connect Germany’s mercantile predestine closer to theirs.

“If France becomes stronger that would help,” pronounced one comparison central tighten to Merkel.

Reporting by Michael Nienaber and Paul Carrel in Berlin; modifying by Giles Elgood

Does Donald Trump Know What Health Insurance Is?: An Investigation http://www.feedmygreed.com/does-donald-trump-know-what-health-insurance-is-an-investigation/ Fri, 21 Jul 2017 10:32:18 +0000 http://www.feedmygreed.com/does-donald-trump-know-what-health-insurance-is-an-investigation/ In an talk with Time in May, Donald Trump concurred that bargain health-care process “wasn’t high on my list” when he ran his possess company. Several weeks earlier, he had complained that “nobody knew that health caring could be so complicated.” But carrying perceived a pile-up course, he claimed, he was adult to speed on a subject. “In a brief volume of time we accepted all there was to know about health care.”

With a Republican devise to dissolution Obamacare collapsing, once again, amid sheer disagreements between conservatives and centrist Republicans over a deputy plan, however, Trump seems as confused as ever. Even some-more concerning, it is increasingly apparent that a boss does not know what word is during a elemental level. When asked about health caring during an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday, this is how he responded:

So pre-existing conditions are a tough deal. Because we are fundamentally observant from a impulse a insurance, you’re 21 years old, we start operative and you’re profitable $12 a year for insurance, and by a time you’re 70, we get a good plan. Here’s something where we travel adult and say, “I wish my insurance.” It’s a unequivocally tough deal, yet it is something that we’re doing a good pursuit of.

“I know a lot about health care,” Trump announced after on in a interview. It is clear, though, that he does not. A $12 annual health-insurance reward is, of course, a diverting concept, and many health-insurance premiums are paid on a monthly, not yearly, basis. In 2016, a singular chairman paid an normal annual reward of $6,435, with employees picking adult 18 percent of a cost, according to a Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and a Health Research and Educational Trust. Under a Affordable Care Act, a inhabitant normal cost for a 21-year-old with a lowest-level word reward is about $153 per month.

Trump’s comments on Wednesday do not symbol a initial time he has radically misstated a normal costs compared with health care. He supposing a identical quote to The Economist in May, in that he pronounced health caring should cost about $15 per chairman per month. “Insurance is, you’re 20 years old, we only graduated from college, and we start profitable $15 a month for a rest of your life and by a time you’re 70, and we unequivocally need it, you’re still profitable a same volume and that’s unequivocally insurance,” he said. Later on, he apparently doubled down, adding: “We’re going to have most reduce premiums and we’re going to have most reduce deductibles.” (Estimates by a Congressional Budget Office advise that both a House and Senate bills to dissolution and reinstate Obamacare would boost premiums and deductibles for comparison people and people with pre-existing conditions, yet health caring could spin some-more affordable for younger, healthier people.)

The boss of a United States seems unknowingly that health-care premiums can cost even immature people but health issues hundreds of dollars each month. His idea that we “get a good plan” when we spin 70 also suggests that he competence be meditative of a whole life-insurance policy, where beneficiaries can repel income or take out a loan opposite a income they’ve paid into a plan. Life word has most reduce premiums than health insurance. It is also an wholly opposite advantage module that has zero to do with covering medical costs, yet life-insurance companies do publicize frequently on a cable-news channels Trump spends his mornings and evenings watching, so one can see how he competence be confused.

Opinion: This stock-market signal says the rate of gains is about to pick up http://www.feedmygreed.com/opinion-this-stock-market-signal-says-the-rate-of-gains-is-about-to-pick-up/ Fri, 21 Jul 2017 10:32:16 +0000 http://www.feedmygreed.com/opinion-this-stock-market-signal-says-the-rate-of-gains-is-about-to-pick-up/ The stock market has been going straight up. And a new signal has just been given, showing that it’s possible that you haven’t seen anything yet. Let’s start with a chart to understand this.


Please click here for the chart, which compares the SP 500 ETF

SPY, +0.04%

with momentum ETF

MTUM, -0.10%

Notice the rate at which the SP 500 has risen. Also notice that, until recently, the momentum ETF had lagged behind but has now caught up.

Ask Arora: Nigam Arora answers your questions about investing in stocks, ETFs, bonds, gold and silver, oil and currencies. Have a question? Send it to Nigam Arora.

Parabolic move

In mathematical terms, a parabola is a curve where any point is at an equal distance from a fixed point called the focus and a fixed straight line called the directrix. In the context of the stock market, a parabolic move simply means that the rate of the stock market gains will increase by a large amount.

A parabolic move can be highly profitable. There is potential to make more money in the stock market than has already been made.

The signal from the algorithms

For market timing and allocation, at The Arora Report we use the adaptive ZYX Global Multi Asset Allocation Model. Adaptive means that the underlying algorithms automatically change with market conditions. The model has macro, fundamental, quantitative and technical inputs in 10 categories.

The probability of a parabolic move, according to the algorithm, has been limping along around 0% for a very long time. The probability of a parabolic move has just jumped to 20%. It is due to a combination of different factors. The biggest factor is the way stocks are acting after they report earnings that are better than the whisper numbers and analysts’ consensus numbers.

Understanding probabilities

In plain English, probability simply means the likelihood of something happening.

The probability of getting heads in a fair coin toss is 50%. A probability of 70% means there are 70 chances out of 100 for that event to occur.

One of the most important contributions to profitability in your trading will be Nigam’s Second Law of Investing: “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next.” For this reason, the only way to be consistently profitable over a large number of trades, over a long period of time, is to think in terms of probabilities. If anyone tells you any different, run away from them as quickly as you can, as following them will lead to losses over a large number of trades over a long period of time.

The safest way to play it

One of the safest ways to play the markets if a parabolic move is starting is to use the momentum ETF MTUM. MTUM is already in the ZYX Global portfolio of The Arora Report.

Investors may also consider emerging markets of India, Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Russia. These emerging markets have the potential to provide even bigger returns. ETFs of interest are India ETFs

EPI, -0.08%

INDA, -0.47%


INDY, -0.14%

; Indonesia ETF

EIDO, +0.07%

; Vietnam ETF

VNM, -0.48%

; China ETF

ASHR, +0.25%

; and Russia ETF

RSX, -0.34%

Those who are inclined to use individual stocks may focus on the following: Amazon

AMZN, +0.18%


FB, +0.24%


NVDA, +1.45%

Advanced Micro Devices

AMD, +1.85%

Applied Optoelectronics

AAOI, -4.04%

U.S. Steel

X, -1.31%

Applied Materials

AMAT, +0.15%


JKS, -0.96%


MSFT, +0.49%


GOOG, -0.28%

GOOGL, -0.06%

and Apple

AAPL, -0.45%

What to do now

This is a call to be prepared to buy aggressively if the parabolic move starts or the probability of the parabolic move goes higher. The reason is that, historically, such moves happen very quickly. If you have prepared ahead of time, you can act with conviction.

To be absolutely clear, this is not a call to start buying now. It is true that the probability of a parabolic move is 20%, but there’s an 80% probability of such a move not occurring. We will be on high alert and carefully monitoring the situation.

Disclosure: Subscribers to The Arora Report may have positions in the securities mentioned in this article or may take positions at any time. All recommended positions are reviewed daily at The Arora Report.

Nigam Arora is an investor, engineer and nuclear physicist by background, has founded two Inc. 500 fastest-growing companies, is the developer of the adaptive ZYX Global Multi Asset Allocation Model and the ZYX Change Method to profit from change in trading and investing. He is the founder of The Arora Report, which publishes four newsletters. Nigam can be reached at Nigam@TheAroraReport.com.